TRACKERS

Posted at 1:52 p.m. ET

(Please note that an earlier error in "Trackers" has been corrected.  Battleground has McCain up one, not Obama, as earlier reported.  UA regrets the error.)

Three of the four available trackers for the day have been published, essentially showing no change.  Rasmussen has Obama up one, and Gallup has him up four.  Battleground has McCain up one.  In a way, the national polling news over the last few days has been reasonable for McCain.  The slippage he suffered last week appears to have stopped, but more days of polling will be needed to demonstrate that. 

Only the Hotline poll for today is yet to be published.

There are some new state polls, though, and unfortunately they're not encouraging.  Obama is up six in Virginia - one poll only - and eight in Minnesota.  Recent polls have had McCain up inVirginia, and have shown Minnesota to be competitive.  A North Carolina poll has McCain up three, but he should be further ahead there.  A poll in Pennsylvania has Obama up two.  There may be hope there.

This remains a tight race.   Whoever wins the electoral college may do it by piling up two- and three-point margins in a number of states.  The bottom line is that we've returned to a pattern we saw before the convention - McCain is close, but Obama is ahead, and close doesn't count in politics. 

UPDATE AT 2:10 p.m. ET:  Hotline is now out, showing Obama up five.  He was up one in this poll yesterday.  This jump is unexplainable, and is not matched by the other trackers.  We'll have to follow Hotline over four days or so.

Only one national poll, Battleground, has McCain leading.

September 22, 2008.